FanBoardHQ

Boise State

Boise State University · 2022 · Mountain West

FanBoardHQ CFP
#50
Efficiency
+3.5
58th FBS
Record
10-4
Conf. record
8-1
Conf. finish
T-1st
of 12
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Boise State went 10-4 and was ranked 50th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 46th-ranked defense carried them, with a 51st-ranked offense. They ran the ball on 58% of offensive plays with a 45th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 42% of plays with a 41st-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-1
Q2
1-0
Q3
2-1
Q4
7-2

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Expected: 10.0 wins
Strength of Record
46th
-1.2 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
95th
full season
95th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
126th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~7.5 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1@ Oregon StatePac-12#12L 1734-16.50%0.9Q1
2@ New MexicoMountain West#128W 3114+22.0100%2.8Q4
3vs UT MartinOVCW 307+25.0100%1.1Q4
4@ UTEPConference USA#107L 1027+13.80%-18.7Q4
5vs San Diego StateMountain West#79W 3513+13.3100%17.1Q4
6vs Fresno StateMountain West#41W 4020+0.6100%22.4Q3
8@ Air ForceMountain West#45W 1914-5.2100%14.9Q2
9vs Colorado StateMountain West#120W 4910+25.4100%9.3Q4
10vs BYUFBS Independents#57L 2831+6.00%-5.7Q4
11@ NevadaMountain West#126W 413+19.4100%18.0Q4
12@ WyomingMountain West#83W 2017+10.8100%-4.5Q4
13vs Utah StateMountain West#98W 4223+20.3100%1.2Q4
14vs Fresno StateMountain West#41L 1628+0.60%-10.7Q3
Postseason
vs North TexasConference USA#80W 3532+7.2100%0.5Q3

14 played · 10-4. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Boise State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-15.4+1.9+19.1131-191722159-618-51-11Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 41st
SR 70thYPP 41stEPA 30th
RushingEff 45th
SR 48thYPP 32ndEPA 49th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 64th
SR 35thYPP 86thEPA 78th
Rush defenseEff 61st
SR 36thYPP 46thEPA 72nd
Dropback rate 42%Tempo -1.2 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 82nd on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 45%1st · Defense allowed: 36%1st2nd · Offense: 43%2nd · Defense allowed: 35%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 44%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 36%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 62.0Q1 · Allowed: 61.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 105.0Q2 · Allowed: 71.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 128.0Q3 · Allowed: 50.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 110.0Q4 · Allowed: 70.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledBoise StateOffenseDefense
Boise State Offense vs Defense, 2022
Offensive EffRanked 51st
+1.9
Field position: +1.0Finishing drives: +0.9
Field position +1.0Finishing drives +0.9= +1.9
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 30th · Finishing 58th

Defensive EffRanked 46th
+2.6
Field position: +0.9Finishing drives: +1.7
Field position +0.9Finishing drives +1.7= +2.6
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 42nd · Finishing 49th

2.45 points per drive on offense, 1.51 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 32.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(212)38% / 62%44%6.2
Q2(235)57% / 43%39%6.2
Q3(229)40% / 60%49%6.6
Q4(232)32% / 68%44%5.8
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(136)10.344%7.7
2nd(116)8.943%7.9
3rd(127)8.237%5.5
4th(4)7.50%0.0
All (383)41%6.9
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(267)9.745%5.7
2nd(191)7.043%5.9
3rd(56)4.455%5.1
4th(11)2.391%4.5
All (525)46%5.7

Boise State, all games.